Global impact of 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis in all ages: The PSERENADE project

Abstract

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) introduced in childhood national immunization programs lowered vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), but replacement with non-vaccine-types persisted throughout the PCV10/13 follow-up period. We assessed PCV10/13 impact on pneumococcal meningitis incidence globally. Methods: The number of cases with serotyped pneumococci detected in cerebrospinal fluid and population denominators were obtained from surveillance sites globally. Site-specific meningitis incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing pre-PCV incidence to each year post-PCV10/13 were estimated by age (<5, 5–17 and ≥18 years) using Bayesian multi-level mixed effects Poisson regression, accounting for pre-PCV trends. All-site weighted average IRRs were estimated using linear mixed-effects regression stratified by age, product (PCV10 or PCV13) and prior PCV7 impact (none, moderate, or substantial). Changes in pneumococcal meningitis incidence were estimated overall and for product-specific vaccine-types and non-PCV13-types. Results: Analyses included 10,168 cases <5 y from PCV13 sites and 2849 from PCV10 sites, 3711 and 1549 for 5–17 y and 29,187 and 5653 for ≥18 y from 42 surveillance sites (30 PCV13, 12 PCV10, 2 PCV10/13) in 30 countries, primarily high-income (84%). Six years after PCV10/PCV13 introduction, pneumococcal meningitis declined 48–74% across products and PCV7 impact strata for children <5 y, 35–62% for 5–17 y and 0–36% for ≥18 y. Impact against PCV10-types at PCV10 sites, and PCV13-types at PCV13 sites was high for all age groups (<5 y: 96–100%; 5–17 y: 77–85%; ≥18 y: 73–85%). After switching from PCV7 to PCV10/13, increases in non-PCV13-types were generally low to none for all age groups. Conclusion: Pneumococcal meningitis declined in all age groups following PCV10/PCV13 introduction. Plateaus in non-PCV13-type meningitis suggest less replacement than for all IPD. Data from meningitis belt and high-burden settings were limited.