Future inequality of human exposure to greenspace resource and spatial utilization strategy in China

Abstract

Inequity in human exposure to greenspaces is a global concern, but predicting future long-term trends and designing spatial utilization strategy are still lacking. This study integrated multi-source data, future land use simulation model and machine learning to estimate the spatiotemporal patterns of greenspace exposure and its inequality (measured by Gini index) in China from 2020 to 2100, and proposed spatial utilization strategy assuming constant greenspace provision. Results showed that future greenspace exposure inequality and change rates are generally higher (1.1–2.7 times) in northern China than in southern China. Under the SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, greenspace exposure inequality is more pronounced and grows faster for older and less educated women, as well as in megacities. Moreover, a targeted reduction in patch fragmentation can alleviate greenspace exposure inequality by 8.1–19.9 %. These insights require future urban greening to simultaneously consider greenspace spatial configuration and structural differences to popularize greenspaces for urban residents.