Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options

Abstract

Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional input–output analysis with an agro-ecological zones model. We find that EGD’s agricultural and forestry targets set for 2030 could result in a 23.9 Mha increase in demand for agricultural land outside the European Union, which in turn would lead to an increase in land-use-related carbon emissions by 758.9 MtCO<inf>2</inf>-equivalent (244.8% of EGD’s carbon removal target in the land, land-use-change and forestry sectors) and a biodiversity loss of 3.86 million mean species abundance loss. Such spillover impacts far exceed the ecological benefits from EGD conservation-based import policies, such as promoting deforestation-free products and phasing out food-based biofuel. We then propose three options beyond the primary targets of the EGD with the aim to mitigate such spillover impacts. The assessment of these options reveals the critical role of reducing meat and dairy consumption, highlighting the impact of consumer behaviour on environmental outcomes. This raises questions about public awareness, willingness to change diets and the role of policy in influencing consumer behaviours.