Facilitating circularity of end-of-life photovoltaic in China with environmental benefits and costs informed by a high-resolution waste map

Abstract

The rapid growth of global photovoltaic (PV) installation will lead to the emergence of end-of-life (EoL) modules in the coming decades. It is essential to understand when, where, and how much PV waste will be generated and the benefits of recycling in order to promote a circular PV economy. In this study, we develop a multi-model, multi-scale assessment framework to forecast PV waste distribution and explore the resource, environmental, and economic benefits of various waste management strategies in China. Our findings show that PV waste will reach 26 million tons by 2050. Decommissioning hotspots will first emerge in the Northwest, then spread to the North and East. Compared to a single strategy, the combined strategy generates significant benefits, reducing emissions by 39 MtCO<inf>2</inf>eq and cutting costs by $2.3 billion. By providing a comprehensive picture of the dynamics of PV waste, our study enables policymakers to formulate region-specific recycling strategies.