Decarbonizing China’s Urban Agglomerations

Abstract

China’s urban agglomerations contribute 64 percent to China’s energy-related CO <inf>2</inf> emissions and thus play a vital role in determining the future of climate change. There is little information available about city-level energy consumption and CO <inf>2</inf> emissions; thus, we employ spatiotemporal modeling using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Line-scan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light imagery. Our findings show that such agglomerations have in fact experienced a remarkable decline in CO <inf>2</inf> emission intensity—from 0.43 t/thousand yuan to 0.20 t/thousand yuan between 1995 and 2013, which constitutes an average annual decline of 4.34 percent. Despite still very high CO <inf>2</inf> intensities in western China, a convergence of CO <inf>2</inf> intensities across the country has occurred over the last few decades. Using panel regression modeling, we analyze differences in the decline of CO <inf>2</inf> emission intensities due to regional differences in socioeconomic variables such as economic growth, population, economic structure, population density, and characteristics of urbanization. Factors that have hampered the decline of CO <inf>2</inf> intensities are the ongoing industrialization that demands the increase in the production of heavy industry, in infrastructure investment, and in housing stock.