Socioeconomic and atmospheric factors affecting aerosol radiative forcing: Production-based versus consumption-based perspective

Abstract

There exist substantial differences in top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing of aerosols due to a region's economic production (RF<inf>p</inf>) and consumption (RF<inf>c</inf>), in the context of economic globalization, trade and globalizing air pollution. Yet an explicit systematic analysis of all socioeconomic and atmospheric factors determining the RF difference is lacking. Here, we evaluate five socioeconomic (population, per capita output, emission intensity) and atmospheric (chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency) factors that determine a region's RF<inf>p</inf>, RF<inf>c</inf> and their difference. We consider the RF of secondary inorganic aerosols, primary organic aerosols and black carbon by 10 regions worldwide in 2007. The population size varies by a factor of nine across the regions, and per capita output by 40 times from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. The cross-regional spread reaches a factor of 181 (species dependent) for production-based emission intensity and a factor of 96 for consumption-based intensity. From one region to another, production-based chemical efficiency changes within a factor of 5 and consumption-based efficiency within a factor of 3.5. Radiative efficiency varies slightly across the regions (within 2) from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. Although socioeconomic factors are often a greater driver for the difference between a source region's RF<inf>p</inf> and RF<inf>c</inf>, the atmospheric factors are also important for many source regions and species. Our results contribute to regional attribution of climate change and establishment of effective international collaborative mitigation strategies.