Mitigation strategy of Eastern China based on energy-source carbon emission estimation

Abstract

Eastern China is the most developed region in our nation, and its carbon emission accounts for half of the total carbon emission of China. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the carbon emissions from the region for assessing whether China can achieve the peaking target or not. Based on the panel data of 11 eastern provinces from 1997 to 2017, this paper uses STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions of the 11 eastern provinces under different scenarios, and analyzes the possible peaks of carbon emission. It is found that among the 11 eastern provinces, 7 provinces may reach their emission peaks before 2030. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai will have the carbon emission peak early with the peak time at 2022, while the other 4 provinces are difficult to reach the peak before 2030. As a whole, the peaking time of carbon emission in the eastern China is between 2028 and 2033, and the peak is between 5018.03 × 10⁶ t to 5497.20 × 10⁶ t. Overall, it is possible for the eastern China to reach the emission peak around 2030, which is important to achieve the China's peaking target. Meanwhile, considering the differences of the carbon emission peak, China should formulate differentiated mitigation targets according to the local situations of these eastern provinces.