China's power transformation may drastically change employment patterns in the power sector and its upstream supply chains

Abstract

China's power sector, as the major CO2 emitter, has experienced significant restructuring that has had profound impacts on employment in both power and its upstream sectors. Combining input-output and structural path analysis, we quantified the direct and indirect impacts of power transformation on employment in China between 2012 and 2017. Direct employment in the power generation sector witnessed a net growth of 0.12 million, while over 10 times that number of jobs (1.40 million) have been lost in the upstream sectors, mainly in coal mining and washing, finance, oil and gas extraction and transportation. Among the top 10 critical paths, the share of employment driven by solar and wind power increased to 12.31% in 2017, more than nine times that in 2012. Furthermore, three scenarios have been set up to evaluate the employment patterns in 2030 and 2050. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, projection shows that the power sector could support over 5 million jobs in 2050, with more than 80% of these being related to renewable energy. Policy suggestions for a just transition, such as resettlement of laid-off workers and job transfer in upstream industries, are comprehensively discussed.