Demand-side insights for steering human appropriation of net primary productivity within planetary boundaries

Abstract

Human activities are increasingly pressuring the land system and biosphere integrity, highlighting the urgency to manage this pressure—measured as human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP)—within a safe limit (planetary boundary) to avoid catastrophic consequences. Prior studies have suggested that solutions lie in demand management, yet the HANPP consumption by country and its future trends remain unclear. Understanding these aspects is vital for identifying hotspot regions and proposing potential solutions. Here, by developing a model for country-level HANPP consumption accounting and projections, we find that nearly half of high-income countries have surpassed their per-capita HANPP limits. Meanwhile, HANPP consumption in low- and middle-income countries is set to rise rapidly, posing future challenges. We emphasize the necessity for global cooperation in restructuring supply chains and sharing agricultural technologies. Our findings offer insights into how to diminish stresses on the land system and biosphere integrity from the demand side.