Priced Out of Marriage: Housing Prices and Declining Marriage Rates Worldwide (2009–2018)

Abstract

<p>This study examines how housing unaffordability affects marriage formation across 52 countries from 2009 to 2018, addressing a major research gap by offering a cross‑national analysis that contrasts how housing markets influence marriage differently in developed and developing economies. Using fixed‑effects panel regression models and multiple robustness checks, the analysis finds that higher housing unaffordability—measured by the price‑to‑income ratio—is significantly associated with lower marriage rates, confirming the economic‑constraint mechanism: rising housing costs delay or discourage marriage by restricting both financial capacity and perceived readiness for independence. The negative relationship is particularly strong in developed economies, where formal institutions more directly transmit affordability pressures into marriage decisions. By contrast, the association is weaker in developing countries, where informal housing channels and family networks help absorb these pressures. The study highlights affordability as a key institutional determinant of global family formation.<br></p>