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Article: Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium
Title | Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium | ||||||||
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Authors | |||||||||
Keywords | Aridity threshold China Climate change Land carrying capacity Population dynamics Temperature | ||||||||
Issue Date | 2009 | ||||||||
Publisher | Inter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/ | ||||||||
Citation | Climate Research, 2009, v. 39 n. 2, p. 131-147 How to Cite? | ||||||||
Abstract | The relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming. © Inter-Research 2009. | ||||||||
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/86100 | ||||||||
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 1.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.320 | ||||||||
ISI Accession Number ID |
Funding Information: Research Grants were kindly provided by the HKU Small Project Funding for the project entitled 'The Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Natural Disasters in Historical China' (200807176038), by the HKU Seed Funding for Basic Research for the project entitled 'Long-Term Climate Change and the Seventeenth-Century General Crisis in Europe', and by the Research Grants Council of The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China for the projects entitled 'Climate Change and War-Peace Cycles in Eurasia in Recent Human History' (HKU7055/08H). We also thank Prof. B. Yang for providing the data on aridity threshold reconstructions and Prof. P. Brecke for suggesting the method of data interpolation. | ||||||||
References | |||||||||
Grants |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lee, HF | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, DD | en_HK |
dc.contributor.author | Fok, L | en_HK |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-09-06T09:12:53Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2010-09-06T09:12:53Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.citation | Climate Research, 2009, v. 39 n. 2, p. 131-147 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issn | 0936-577X | en_HK |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/86100 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming. © Inter-Research 2009. | en_HK |
dc.language | eng | en_HK |
dc.publisher | Inter-Research. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.int-res.com/journals/cr/ | en_HK |
dc.relation.ispartof | Climate Research | en_HK |
dc.subject | Aridity threshold | en_HK |
dc.subject | China | en_HK |
dc.subject | Climate change | en_HK |
dc.subject | Land carrying capacity | en_HK |
dc.subject | Population dynamics | en_HK |
dc.subject | Temperature | en_HK |
dc.title | Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium | en_HK |
dc.type | Article | en_HK |
dc.identifier.openurl | http://library.hku.hk:4550/resserv?sid=HKU:IR&issn=0936-577X&volume=39&issue=2&spage=131&epage=147&date=2009&atitle=Temperature,+aridity+thresholds,+and+population+growth+dynamics+in+China+over+the+last+millennium | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Lee, HF:harry.lee@graduate.hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.email | Zhang, DD:zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Lee, HF=rp00646 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.authority | Zhang, DD=rp00649 | en_HK |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3354/cr00816 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-68849099076 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 163717 | en_HK |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-68849099076&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_HK |
dc.identifier.volume | 39 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issue | 2 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.spage | 131 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.epage | 147 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1616-1572 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000269818800005 | - |
dc.publisher.place | Germany | en_HK |
dc.relation.project | The Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Natural Disasters in Historical China | - |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lee, HF=9243348000 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Zhang, DD=9732911600 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Fok, L=19933387900 | en_HK |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0936-577X | - |