Use of the SAMe-TT2R2 Score to Predict Good Anticoagulation Control with Warfarin in Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Relationship to Ischemic Stroke Incidence

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of warfarin therapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) depends on the time in therapeutic range (TTR). We aimed to assess the predictive ability of SAMe-TT2R2 score in Chinese AF patients on warfarin, whose TTR is notoriously poor. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a single-centre retrospective study. Patients with non-valvular AF on warfarin diagnosed between 1997 and 2011 were stratified according to SAMe-TT2R2 score, and TTR was calculated using Rosendaal method. The predictive power of SAMe-TT2R2 scores for good TTR i.e. >70% was assessed. We included 1,428 Chinese patients (mean age 76.2+/-8.7 years, 47.5% male) with non-valvular AF on warfarin. The mean and median TTR were 38.2+/-24.4% and 38.8% (interquartile range: 17.9% and 56.2%) respectively. TTR decreased progressively with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score (p = 0.016). When the cut-off value of SAMe-TT2R2 score was set to 2, the sensitivity and specificity to predict TTR<70% were 85.7% and 17.8%, respectively. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.1% and 92.0%. After a mean follow-up of 4.7+/-3.6 years, 338 patients developed an ischemic stroke (4.96%/year). Patients with TTR>/=70% had a lower annual risk of ischemic stroke of 3.67%/year compared with than those with TTR<70% (5.13%/year)(p = 0.08). Patients with SAMe-TT2R2 score </=2 had the lowest risk of annual risk of ischemic stroke (3.49%/year) compared with those with SAMe-TT2R2 score = 3 (4.56%/year), and those with SAMe-TT2R2 score >/=4 (6.41%/year)(p<0.001). There was also a non-significant trend towards more intracranial hemorrhage with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score. CONCLUSIONS: The SAMe-TT2R2 score correlates well with TTR in Chinese AF patients, with a score >2 having high sensitivity and negative predictive values for poor TTR. Ischemic stroke risk increased progressively with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score, consistent with poorer TTRs at high SAMe-TT2R2 scores.