中国火灾的时空演变特征——基于GIS的统计分析

Abstract

研究对象为2000-2009年中国341个地级以上城市（不含台湾及港澳地区）的火灾统计数据。首先应用主成分分析法,计算火灾综合损失（fire composite losts,FCL）;再对FCL进行分级,将所有研究单元按FCL从小到大分为5个级别,较高FCL单元主要分布于黑河—腾冲线以东地区。对每个研究单元分别进行时间序列分析,观察其FCL变化趋势,将各区域分为平稳区、改善区、恶化区和波动区,其分别占比41%,40%,8%和11%,表明绝大多数城市FCL呈平稳或下降趋势。恶化区明显地沿黑河—腾冲线、淮河—大别山—雪峰山沿线和东南沿海分布,这可能与气候变化或社会经济发展有关。

Study data were taken from Chinese 341 above prefecture cities (except Taiwan, Hongkong and Macao) fire annual in 2000-2009. Calculating fire composite lost(FCL)by principal component analysis (PCA) , we classified all units into 5 levers sorted by FCL. Higher level units mostly lie in east of Heihe-Tengchong line. By means of time series analysis of every unit' s FCL, each unit can be fell into stable area, improved area, deteriorated area and fluctuation area, accounting for 40% ,41% ,8% ,11% respectively. Specially, deteriorated area distributes along Heihe-Tengchong, Huaihe River-Dabie Mountain-Xuefeng Mountain, and southeast coast, which may be related to some characters of climate change or social and economical development.