Competing risk analyses of medullary carcinoma of breast in comparison to infiltrating ductal carcinoma

Abstract

The aim of current study was to use competing risk model to assess whether medullary carcinoma of the breast (MCB) has a better prognosis than invasive ductal carcinomas of breast cancer (IDC), and to build a competing risk nomogram for predicting the risk of death of MCB. We involved 3,580 MCB patients and 319,566 IDC patients from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. IDC was found to have a worse BCSS than MCB (Hazard ratio (HR) > 1, p < 0.001). The 5-year cumulative incidences of death (CID) was higher in IDC than MCB (p < 0.001). Larger tumor size, increasing number of positive lymph nodes and unmarried status were found to worsen the BCSS of MCB (HR > 1, p < 0.001). We found no association between ER, PR, radiotherapy or chemotherapy and MCB prognosis (p > 0.05). After a penalized variable selection process, the SH model-based nomogram showed moderate accuracy of prediction by internal validation of discrimination and calibration with 1,000 bootstraps. In summary, MCB patients had a better prognosis than IDC patients. Interestingly, unmarried status in addition to expected risk factors such as larger tumor size and increasing number of positive lymph nodes were found to worsen the BCSS of MCB. We also established a competing risk nomogram as an easy-to-use tool for prognostic estimation of MCB patients.