Random Multi Hazard Resilience Modeling of Engineered Systems and Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

The random occurrence of natural and manmade hazards causes significant interruption to normal functionality of engineered systems and critical infrastructures (CIs). Given their ubiquitous nature and the necessity to maintain their performance, there is a global need to quantify these systems’ resilience under multi hazard, particularly when the hazards exhibit random and dynamic frequency and severity. Discussed in this study is the resilience quantification of engineered systems and CIs as a function of their performance during and after the multi hazard; to account for the uncertainty of the hazard and recovery resource availability, stochastic performance metrics such as availability and recovery time are investigated across time and adopted to quantify resilience as a piecewise function. The property of resilience is thoroughly investigated with respect to systems’ reliability metrics. Extensive simulation studies and a numerical example are provided to validate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed resilience models.