Ejection fraction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts adverse outcomes post aortic valve replacement

Abstract

Introduction Predicting prognosis following aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) remains challenging. Current guidelines recommend that surgery should be offered when ejection fraction (EF) is <50%. We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of EF calculated by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in the long term survival of patients following AVR.Methods 80 patients (69 ± 11 years old at time of surgery; 55 male) scheduled for AVR underwent CMR assessment. 52 patients had severe AS (area <1cm2), 28 patients had moderate AS (area 1.0–1.5cm2) and other qualifying reasons for AVR. 44 patients had additional coronary artery disease.Patients were categorised into three groups according to EF prior to surgery: Group 1 (EF <50%; n = 26), Group 2 (EF of 50–70%; n = 26) and Group 3 (EF >70%; n = 28). A median 5.0 ± 1.8 years follow-up was completed using the National Strategic Tracing Scheme and hospital notes.Results Univariate analysis of all cause mortality using the Kaplan-Meier estimator demonstrated significantly higher mortality in patients with Group 1 (EF <50%) compared to those in group 3 (EF >70%; .03).There was no statistical difference between group 2 (EF of 50–70%) and the remaining 2 groups.Kaplan-Meier survival curve of all cause mortality in Group 1 (EF <50%), Group 2 (EF 50–70%) and Group 3 (EF >70%)Conclusion Pre-operative EF is a significant predictor of mortality following AVR. Patients with EF <50% have the worst prognosis whereas those with EF >70% have the best prognosis. We aim to incease the sample size to determine whether a progressive decrease in EF per se even when above 50% should initiate consideration for AVR.