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Others: Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions

TitleEvolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions
Authors
Ali, STWang, LLau, EHYXu, XDu, ZWu, YLeung, GMCowling, BJ
KeywordsSARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Serial interval
Transmission
Control
Public health
Issue Date2020
Citation
Research Square, 2020, article no. rs.3.rs-32486 How to Cite?
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-32486/v1
AbstractStudies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.
DescriptionPreprints are preliminary reports that have not undergone peer review. They should not be considered conclusive, used to inform clinical practice, or referenced by the media as validated information.
Published in Science, 2020, v. 369 n. 6507, p. 1106-1109. DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9004
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/290826
PubMed Central ID
PMC7336698

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorAli, ST-
dc.contributor.authorWang, L-
dc.contributor.authorLau, EHY-
dc.contributor.authorXu, X-
dc.contributor.authorDu, Z-
dc.contributor.authorWu, Y-
dc.contributor.authorLeung, GM-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ-
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-02T05:47:40Z-
dc.date.available2020-11-02T05:47:40Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationResearch Square, 2020, article no. rs.3.rs-32486-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/290826-
dc.descriptionPreprints are preliminary reports that have not undergone peer review. They should not be considered conclusive, used to inform clinical practice, or referenced by the media as validated information.-
dc.descriptionPublished in Science, 2020, v. 369 n. 6507, p. 1106-1109. DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9004-
dc.description.abstractStudies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofResearch Square-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2-
dc.subjectCOVID-19-
dc.subjectSerial interval-
dc.subjectTransmission-
dc.subjectControl-
dc.subjectPublic health-
dc.titleEvolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions-
dc.typeOthers-
dc.identifier.emailAli, ST: alist15@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailDu, Z: zwdu@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailLeung, GM: gmleung@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityAli, ST=rp02673-
dc.identifier.authorityLau, EHY=rp01349-
dc.identifier.authorityDu, Z=rp02777-
dc.identifier.authorityLeung, GM=rp00460-
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326-
dc.description.naturepreprint-
dc.identifier.doi10.21203/rs.3.rs-32486/v1-
dc.identifier.pmid32702717-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC7336698-
dc.identifier.hkuros318571-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. rs.3.rs-32486-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. rs.3.rs-32486-

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