The Cross Section of Monetary Policy Announcement Premium

Abstract

Using the expected option-implied variance reduction to measure the sensitivity of stock returns to monetary policy announcement surprises, this paper shows that monetary policy announcements require significant risk compensation in the cross section of equity returns. We present evidence that our sensitivity measure captures the exposure of stock returns with respect to growth rate expectations. We develop a parsimonious equilibrium model in which FOMC announcements reveal the Federal Reserve's interest rate target, which affects the expected growth rate of the economy. Our model accounts for the dynamics of implied variances and the cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium realized around FOMC announcement days.