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Article: The differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong
Title | The differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 2021 |
Publisher | Elsevier: Creative Commons Licenses. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/western-pacific |
Citation | The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 2021, v. 13, p. article no. 100184 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Background:
Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls.
Methods:
We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the risk of having released infectious travellers when a resurgence occurs in departure locations with no imported cases during a certain period.
Findings:
Under the then strict controls of 14-day quarantine and testing on day 12, the Philippines imposed the greatest importation risk among the studied countries/regions (95.8% of releasing at least one infectious traveller, 95% credible interval (CrI), 94.8-96.6%). This was higher than that from low prevalence countries/regions (e.g., 23.4%, 95% CrI, 21.6-25.3% for Taiwan) if controls relaxed (i.e., 7-day quarantine and test on day 5). Increased traveller volumes and resurgence in departure locations with low prevalence under relaxed controls did not impose a greater importation risk than high prevalence locations under stricter controls.
Interpretation:
Moderate relaxation of control measures for travellers arriving from low prevalence locations did not impose higher risks of community outbreaks than strict controls on travellers from high prevalence locations.
Funding:
Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/301722 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 7.6 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.197 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Yang, B | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tsang, TK | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, JY | - |
dc.contributor.author | He, Y | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gao, H | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ho, F | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, EHY | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wu, P | - |
dc.contributor.author | Sullivan, SG | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-08-09T03:43:16Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-08-09T03:43:16Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 2021, v. 13, p. article no. 100184 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2666-6065 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/301722 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Background: Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls. Methods: We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the risk of having released infectious travellers when a resurgence occurs in departure locations with no imported cases during a certain period. Findings: Under the then strict controls of 14-day quarantine and testing on day 12, the Philippines imposed the greatest importation risk among the studied countries/regions (95.8% of releasing at least one infectious traveller, 95% credible interval (CrI), 94.8-96.6%). This was higher than that from low prevalence countries/regions (e.g., 23.4%, 95% CrI, 21.6-25.3% for Taiwan) if controls relaxed (i.e., 7-day quarantine and test on day 5). Increased traveller volumes and resurgence in departure locations with low prevalence under relaxed controls did not impose a greater importation risk than high prevalence locations under stricter controls. Interpretation: Moderate relaxation of control measures for travellers arriving from low prevalence locations did not impose higher risks of community outbreaks than strict controls on travellers from high prevalence locations. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Elsevier: Creative Commons Licenses. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.thelancet.com/regional-health/western-pacific | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific | - |
dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
dc.title | The differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Yang, B: byyang@connect.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Tsang, TK: matklab@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wong, JY: wongytj@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | He, Y: hynmph@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wu, P: pengwu@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Tsang, TK=rp02571 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, EHY=rp01349 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Wu, P=rp02025 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cowling, BJ=rp01326 | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100184 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 34179860 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC8214928 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85108301283 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 323991 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 13 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 100184 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 100184 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000690384700009 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United Kingdom | - |