电力用户行为模型:基本概念与研究框架

Abstract

在高比例可再生能源并网和电力市场改革不断推进的背景下,通过广泛的用户互动为电力系统提供了灵活性、实现个性化的用户服务,成为未来智能电网发展的必然要求。随着智能电表等信息获取手段的不断普及,电力系统"物理-信息-社会"深度耦合的特征日益突出,对电力用户的分析面临手段上的突破,以物理模型与数据模型相结合的综合分析成为重要趋势。本文提出电力用户行为模型的概念,借鉴社会学对于用户行为的解读,从行为主体、行为环境、行为手段、行为结果和行为效用五个方面进行剖析,然后进一步延拓为集群行为和预见行为;在此基础上对电力用户行为模型的内涵和外延进行分析,阐述用户行为模型的研究意义;最后对电力用户行为建模的理论研究框架进行了分析。

With the increasing integration of renewable energy and the advancement of the electric power market, broad interaction between consumers and systems, which is an effective way to provide flexibility to the power system and realize personalized consumer service, become an inevitable requirement of the development of future smart grid. Meanwhile, information acquisition devices such as smart meters are gaining popularity. The "cyber-physical-social" deep coupling characteristic of the power system becomes more prominent. Breakthroughs are needed to analyze the electrical consumer, where, combining physical-driven and data-driven approaches is an important trend. This paper decomposes consumer behavior into five basic aspects from the sociological perspective: behavior subject, behavior environment, behavior means, behavior result, and behavior utility. On this basis, the concept of consumer behavior model is proposed. Finally, the research framework for electrical consumer behavior model is analyzed.