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Article: Reconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections

TitleReconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections
Authors
Keywordsasymptomatic cases
influenza
transmissibility
Issue Date7-Aug-2023
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, v. 120, n. 33 How to Cite?
Abstract

There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.


Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/339916
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 9.4
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.737
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorTsang, Tim K-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Can-
dc.contributor.authorFang, Vicky J-
dc.contributor.authorPerera, Ranawaka A P M-
dc.contributor.authorSo, Hau Chi-
dc.contributor.authorIp, Dennis K M-
dc.contributor.authorLeung, Gabriel M-
dc.contributor.authorPeiris, J S Malik-
dc.contributor.authorCauchemez, Simon-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, Benjamin J-
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-11T10:40:18Z-
dc.date.available2024-03-11T10:40:18Z-
dc.date.issued2023-08-07-
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023, v. 120, n. 33-
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/339916-
dc.description.abstract<p>There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.<br></p>-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences-
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectasymptomatic cases-
dc.subjectinfluenza-
dc.subjecttransmissibility-
dc.titleReconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.2304750120-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85166786122-
dc.identifier.volume120-
dc.identifier.issue33-
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:001194089800008-
dc.identifier.issnl0027-8424-

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