ctDNA detects residual disease after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and guides adjuvant therapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

<p>The diagnostic accuracy of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) for detecting molecular residual disease (MRD) after multimodal treatment remains unclear. In a prospective cohort of 132 patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by clinical response evaluation and surgery, tumor-informed personalized-panel and fixed-panel ctDNA assays are applied to serial blood samples. Personalized ctDNA assay demonstrates a superior baseline detection rate (99.2%) and outperforms fixed panels in diagnosing post-nCRT residual disease. Integrating personalized ctDNA with conventional clinical diagnostic methods increases sensitivity for predicting non-pathological complete response (non-pCR) from 78.4%–80.7% to 92.0%–93.2%. Patients with detectable MRD post-nCRT and/or post-surgery exhibit worse survival outcomes. In non-pCR patients, adjuvant immunotherapy improves disease-free survival in post-surgery MRD-positive cases, whereas MRD-negative patients derive no benefit. These findings support incorporating ctDNA into response assessment to guide organ-sparing strategies and adjuvant therapy decisions in ESCC. This study is registered at <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/">ClinicalTrials.gov</a> (<a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT03937362">NCT03937362</a>).<br></p>