Conjectural variation based learning model of strategic bidding in spot market

Abstract

In actual electricity market, which operates repeatedly on the basis of one hour or half hour, each firm might learn or estimate other competitors' strategic behaviors from available historical market operation data, and rationally aims at its maximum profit in the repeated biddings. A conjectural variation based learning method is proposed in this paper for generation firm to improve its strategic bidding performance. In the method, each firm learns and dynamically regulates its conjecture upon the reactions of its rivals to its bidding according to available information published in the electricity market, and then makes its optimal generation decision based on the updated conjectural variation of its rivals. Through such learning process, the equilibrium reached in the market is proven a Nash equilibrium. Motivation of generation firm to learn in the changing market environment and consequence of learning behavior in the market are also discussed through computer tests. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.