A Possibility Theory Based Approach for Building Optimal Bidding Strategies in Electricity Markets

Abstract

In the electricity market environment, bidding strategies employed by generation companies may have significant impacts on their own benefits, and on the operating behaviors of an electricity market as well. Hence, how to develop optimal bidding strategies for generation companies or how to analyze strategic behaviors of them and hence to figure out the potential market power abuse is now a very active research area. A possibility theory based approach is proposed in this work for building optimal bidding strategies for generation companies. Based on historical bidding data, the available (production cost) data before the power industry restructuring and experts’ heuristic knowledge, the well known fuzzy set theory is employed to represent the estimated bidding behaviors of rival generation companies, and a fuzzy programming model is next developed and a solving method followed. The approach is especially suitable for those electricity markets recently launched, since sufficient historical bidding data is not available and hence probability methods cannot be employed. Finally, a sample example with 6 generation companies participating in an electricity market is served for demonstrating the essential features of the presented approach.

在電力市場環境下 ,發電公司采用的報價策略對其自身的獲利、甚至市場總體的運行行為都可能有相當大的影響。因而 ,研究發電公司應該如何構造最優的報價策略或分析電力市場中發電公司的策略性行為 ,進而考察潛在的市場勢力的嚴重程度 ,是目前相當活躍的一個研究領域。提出了一種基于可能性理論構造發電公司最優報價策略的方法。以發電公司的歷史報價數據、市場化改革以前的公開數據和專家的經驗性知識等為基礎 ,采用模糊集理論來描述競爭對手的報價行為 ,在此基礎上構造了發電公司最優報價策略的模糊優化模型 ,給出了求解算法。這種方法特別適用于在電力市場運行初期或電力市場運行規則剛被修改后的時期 ,由于可用的歷史數據尚不充分、不能采用概率方法描述競爭對手的報價行為的場合。最后用一個有 6個發電公司參與的電力市場為例 ,說明了所提出的方法的基本特征。